预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟报告
日期 / Date: 2026-10-14 · 作者: AI Trading Bot (demo only)
⚠️ 模拟盘 (demo) 实验：真实 Polymarket 行情，虚拟资金，不构成投资建议。第一周观察期，不设硬性收益目标。
一、账户概览 / Account
| 指标 |
值 |
| 初始权益 |
$1,000,000.00 |
| 当日开盘权益 |
$828,145.45 |
| 当前权益 |
$796,846.60 |
| 当日盈亏 |
$-31,298.85 |
| 已实现盈亏 |
$-168,523.44 |
| 未实现盈亏 |
$-37,411.34 |
| 现金 |
$785,130.63 |
| 持仓数 |
3 |
| 累计成交 |
117 |
| 累计平仓 |
35 (胜率 17%) |
二、当前持仓 / Positions
| # |
Market |
Pick |
Shares |
Avg |
Mark |
Value |
Unrealized |
| 1 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini |
Matteo Berrettini |
95,934 |
0.354 |
0.001 |
$96 |
$-36,630 (-99.7%) |
| 2 |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime |
Yes |
13,320 |
0.320 |
0.305 |
$4,063 |
$-200 (-4.7%) |
| 3 |
Will there be no change in Fed interest ra |
No |
38,755 |
0.210 |
0.195 |
$7,557 |
$-581 (-7.1%) |
三、今日成交 / Today’s Trades (8)
| Time |
Market |
Side |
Pick |
Price |
USD |
| 04:01 |
will-there-be-no-change-in-fed |
BUY |
No |
0.210 |
$4,139 |
| 04:02 |
ucl-vf-bay-2026-10-13-total-4p |
SELL |
Under |
0.222 |
$1,427 |
| 04:03 |
ucl-vf-bay-2026-10-13-total-4p |
SELL |
Under |
0.161 |
$5,538 |
| 04:04 |
ucl-vf-bay-2026-10-13-total-4p |
SELL |
Under |
0.238 |
$7,770 |
| 04:04 |
ucl-vf-bay-2026-10-13-total-4p |
SELL |
Under |
0.288 |
$6,598 |
| 04:06 |
will-there-be-no-change-in-fed |
BUY |
No |
0.210 |
$4,000 |
| 07:39 |
will-the-upper-bound-of-the-ta |
BUY |
No |
0.577 |
$3,997 |
| 07:39 |
will-the-upper-bound-of-the-ta |
SELL |
No |
0.221 |
$1,532 |
今日平仓 (5)
| Time |
Market |
Pick |
In |
Out |
PnL |
| 04:02 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.222 |
$-1,975 |
| 04:03 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.161 |
$-12,665 |
| 04:04 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.238 |
$-9,522 |
| 04:04 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.288 |
$-5,535 |
| 07:39 |
Will the upper bound of the target fed |
No |
0.577 |
0.221 |
$-2,465 |
四、全部平仓记录
| Time |
Market |
Pick |
In |
Out |
PnL |
| 22:49 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie |
Cameron Norrie |
0.623 |
0.447 |
$-10,241 |
| 23:05 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie |
Cameron Norrie |
0.623 |
0.234 |
$-9,516 |
| 23:10 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie |
Cameron Norrie |
0.623 |
0.148 |
$-11,360 |
| 23:15 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie |
Cameron Norrie |
0.623 |
0.160 |
$-10,239 |
| 01:37 |
Villena: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Petr Nes |
Pablo Llamas Ruiz |
0.630 |
0.433 |
$-5,949 |
| 08:20 |
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro |
No |
0.916 |
0.666 |
$-3,197 |
| 08:25 |
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro |
No |
0.916 |
0.821 |
$-18 |
| 08:25 |
Thunder vs. Hawks |
Thunder |
0.503 |
0.090 |
$-15,418 |
| 09:51 |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea |
No |
0.749 |
0.843 |
$+1,259 |
| 10:47 |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White |
Cleveland Guardians |
0.374 |
0.571 |
$+7,585 |
| 10:52 |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White |
Cleveland Guardians |
0.374 |
0.610 |
$+2,592 |
| 13:34 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur |
Alex de Minaur |
0.729 |
0.500 |
$-8,210 |
| 13:39 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur |
Alex de Minaur |
0.729 |
0.500 |
$-2,910 |
| 14:35 |
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro |
No |
0.830 |
0.342 |
$-7,141 |
| 14:40 |
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro |
No |
0.830 |
0.515 |
$-888 |
| 15:36 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannari |
Adrian Mannarino |
0.677 |
0.846 |
$+4,582 |
| 16:02 |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea |
No |
0.707 |
0.599 |
$-2,807 |
| 16:42 |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrett |
Matteo Berrettini |
0.354 |
0.030 |
$-2,546 |
| 21:35 |
China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiat |
Iga Swiatek |
0.386 |
0.324 |
$-2,840 |
| 22:22 |
Thunder vs. Hawks |
Thunder |
0.483 |
0.146 |
$-6,144 |
| 19:48 |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO |
Team Spirit |
0.400 |
0.153 |
$-17,230 |
| 19:49 |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO |
Team Spirit |
0.400 |
0.221 |
$-11,499 |
| 04:40 |
US announces end of Iranian blockade b |
No |
0.823 |
0.817 |
$-453 |
| 05:16 |
US announces end of Iranian blockade b |
No |
0.823 |
0.844 |
$+911 |
| 07:29 |
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heism |
No |
0.448 |
0.413 |
$-84 |
| 07:34 |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through |
No |
0.226 |
0.182 |
$-10,670 |
| 08:29 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates b |
Yes |
0.167 |
0.157 |
$-2,228 |
| 09:04 |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou |
No |
0.370 |
0.377 |
$+1,775 |
| 22:01 |
Will there be no change in Fed interes |
No |
0.172 |
0.133 |
$-13,009 |
| 22:13 |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
0.850 |
0.830 |
$-470 |
| 04:02 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.222 |
$-1,975 |
| 04:03 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.161 |
$-12,665 |
| 04:04 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.238 |
$-9,522 |
| 04:04 |
Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
Under |
0.530 |
0.288 |
$-5,535 |
| 07:39 |
Will the upper bound of the target fed |
No |
0.577 |
0.221 |
$-2,465 |
五、每笔交易复盘 / Per-trade journal (how & why)
交易复盘暂不可用 / journal unavailable: `NameError: name ‘c0’ is not defined`
六、对抗门统计 / Adversarial gate (24h)
| 判定 / Verdict |
次数 |
说明 |
| ✅ 放行 passed |
0 |
对抗门未能证伪 -> 允许下单 |
| 🛑 否决 enforced_veto |
2 |
有据可查的反证 -> 拦截下单 |
| ⚠️ 幻觉拦截 unverified_logged |
0 |
反证无法溯源(幻觉) -> 仅记录不拦截 |
| ❓ 不可用 unavailable |
15 |
中继故障 -> fail-open 放行 |
| 合计 / total |
17 |
|
拦截率 / veto rate: 12% （2/17）
近 24h 被拦截的拟交易 / recent enforced vetoes
| 市场 |
方向 |
置信 |
攻击理由 |
| Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 |
BUY_NO |
0.85 |
Market odds (~52% over) and recent stats show avg total goals 5.00, co |
| Will there be no change in Fed interes |
BUY_NO |
0.92 |
Market odds show ~84% no‑change, but entry price 0.21 implies ~21% no‑ |
七、moomoo demo 账户 / Demo Account (SIMULATE, 无真金)
| 指标 |
值 |
| 账户 / Account |
1425224 (SIMULATE / demo) |
| 总资产 / Total assets |
$999,998.94 |
| 现金 / Cash |
$999,986.84 |
| 持仓市值 / Market value |
$12.10 |
| 持仓数 / Positions |
1 |
| 代码 |
名称 |
数量 |
成本 |
现价 |
未实现盈亏 |
| US.F |
Ford Motor |
1 |
12.174 |
12.099 |
$+0.00 |
2026-10-14 08:59:06 JST · Polymarket demo — 无真金交易。
