预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟报告

日期 / Date: 2026-10-29 · 作者: AI Trading Bot (demo only)

⚠️ 模拟盘 (demo) 实验：真实 Polymarket 行情，虚拟资金，不构成投资建议。第一周观察期，不设硬性收益目标。

一、账户概览 / Account

指标 值
初始权益 $1,000,000.00
当日开盘权益 $745,239.45
当前权益 $743,774.21
当日盈亏 $-1,465.24
已实现盈亏 $-220,692.50
未实现盈亏 $-38,314.68
现金 $689,474.70
持仓数 3
累计成交 246
累计平仓 52 (胜率 15%)

二、当前持仓 / Positions

# Market Pick Shares Avg Mark Value Unrealized
1 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini Matteo Berrettini 95,934 0.354 0.001 $96 $-36,630 (-99.7%)
2 Will the Democratic Party control the Sena No 54,802 0.340 0.325 $17,811 $-822 (-4.4%)
3 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 108,636 0.343 0.335 $36,393 $-862 (-2.3%)

三、今日成交 / Today’s Trades (11)

Time Market Side Pick Price USD
01:07 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.340 $3,726
02:13 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.340 $3,726
02:18 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.340 $3,726
02:43 will-the-democratic-party-cont BUY No 0.340 $3,725
03:03 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.340 $3,725
04:03 will-the-democratic-party-cont BUY No 0.340 $3,725
04:28 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.340 $3,725
06:39 will-the-democratic-party-cont BUY No 0.340 $3,728
09:39 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.350 $3,725
09:49 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.350 $3,725
09:54 2026-balance-of-power-d-senate BUY No 0.350 $3,725

今日平仓 (0)

暂无成交 / No fills yet.

四、全部平仓记录

Time Market Pick In Out PnL
13:39 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 0.729 0.500 $-2,910
14:35 Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro No 0.830 0.342 $-7,141
14:40 Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro No 0.830 0.515 $-888
15:36 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannari Adrian Mannarino 0.677 0.846 $+4,582
16:02 Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea No 0.707 0.599 $-2,807
16:42 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrett Matteo Berrettini 0.354 0.030 $-2,546
21:35 China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiat Iga Swiatek 0.386 0.324 $-2,840
22:22 Thunder vs. Hawks Thunder 0.483 0.146 $-6,144
19:48 Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO Team Spirit 0.400 0.153 $-17,230
19:49 Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO Team Spirit 0.400 0.221 $-11,499
04:40 US announces end of Iranian blockade b No 0.823 0.817 $-453
05:16 US announces end of Iranian blockade b No 0.823 0.844 $+911
07:29 Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heism No 0.448 0.413 $-84
07:34 US x Iran ceasefire continues through No 0.226 0.182 $-10,670
08:29 Will the Fed increase interest rates b Yes 0.167 0.157 $-2,228
09:04 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou No 0.370 0.377 $+1,775
22:01 Will there be no change in Fed interes No 0.172 0.133 $-13,009
22:13 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 0.850 0.830 $-470
04:02 Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 Under 0.530 0.222 $-1,975
04:03 Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 Under 0.530 0.161 $-12,665
04:04 Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 Under 0.530 0.238 $-9,522
04:04 Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 Under 0.530 0.288 $-5,535
07:39 Will the upper bound of the target fed No 0.577 0.221 $-2,465
21:12 Will there be no change in Fed interes No 0.222 0.142 $-7,240
21:30 Will the Fed increase interest rates b Yes 0.215 0.119 $-8,952
02:16 US x Iran ceasefire continues through No 0.237 0.200 $-1,213
03:27 Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 20 Yes 0.436 0.368 $-4,971
03:27 Will there be no change in Fed interes No 0.312 0.287 $-619
04:08 Will the Fed increase interest rates b Yes 0.320 0.281 $-1,386
06:31 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Pr Yes 0.320 0.154 $-2,208
09:57 Will there be no change in Fed interes No 0.284 0.244 $-1,637
15:21 Will the Fed increase interest rates b Yes 0.239 0.250 $+1,363
17:37 Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP ( NIP 0.300 0.226 $-293
20:14 Will there be no change in Fed interes No 0.260 0.250 $-148
04:00 Mallorca: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebe Rebeka Masarova 0.474 0.382 $-745
04:53 US x Iran ceasefire continues through No 0.210 0.192 $-3,600
23:03 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17? No 0.440 0.180 $-18,112
09:09 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Over 0.518 0.380 $-67
14:05 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou No 0.380 0.364 $-3,191
01:53 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French No 0.529 0.535 $+851

五、每笔交易复盘 / Per-trade journal (how & why)

本窗口无平仓交易 / no closed trades in window.

六、对抗门统计 / Adversarial gate (24h)

判定 / Verdict 次数 说明
✅ 放行 passed 0 对抗门未能证伪 -> 允许下单
🛑 否决 enforced_veto 5 有据可查的反证 -> 拦截下单
⚠️ 幻觉拦截 unverified_logged 0 反证无法溯源(幻觉) -> 仅记录不拦截
❓ 不可用 unavailable 15 中继故障 -> fail-open 放行
合计 / total 20

拦截率 / veto rate: 25% （5/20）

近 24h 被拦截的拟交易 / recent enforced vetoes

市场 方向 置信 攻击理由
Will the Democratic Party control the BUY_NO 0.80 Buy imbalance 0.205 shows market buying Yes, so No side is overvalued
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou BUY_NO 0.85 High liquidity (≈5M) and 100% buy imbalance show price is efficient, n
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou BUY_NO 0.97 Market price implies ~65% Yes (0.65 bid), far above model’s 48% Yes, s
Will the Democratic Party control the BUY_NO 0.70 High liquidity (4.67M) and tight spread (0.01) indicate price 0.34 is
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou BUY_NO 0.80 No edge: price is at market ask (0.35) with high liquidity and zero or

七、moomoo demo 账户 / Demo Account (SIMULATE, 无真金)

moomoo demo 当前不可用 / unavailable: `demo account 1425224 not found (OpenD not logged in?)`

(OpenD 未登录时属正常；demo 环境，无真金。)

2026-10-29 11:59:49 JST · Polymarket demo — 无真金交易。