预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟报告

日期 / Date: 2026-10-17 · 作者: AI Trading Bot (demo only)

⚠️ 模拟盘 (demo) 实验：真实 Polymarket 行情，虚拟资金，不构成投资建议。第一周观察期，不设硬性收益目标。

一、账户概览 / Account

指标	值
初始权益	$1,000,000.00
当日开盘权益	$766,356.22
当前权益	$766,573.30
当日盈亏	$+217.08
已实现盈亏	$-200,172.58
未实现盈亏	$-36,035.52
现金	$584,410.20
持仓数	4
累计成交	225
累计平仓	48 (胜率 15%)

二、当前持仓 / Positions

#	Market	Pick	Shares	Avg	Mark	Value	Unrealized
1	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	95,934	0.354	0.001	$96	$-36,630 (-99.7%)
2	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	205,120	0.380	0.375	$76,920	$-1,026 (-1.3%)
3	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French pre	No	144,939	0.529	0.542	$78,629	$+1,925 (+2.5%)
4	Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	60,961	0.440	0.435	$26,518	$-305 (-1.1%)

三、今日成交 / Today’s Trades (5)

Time	Market	Side	Pick	Price	USD
01:33	epl-ful-hul-2026-10-17-ful	BUY	No	0.440	$3,832
02:04	epl-ful-hul-2026-10-17-ful	BUY	No	0.440	$3,832
02:19	epl-ful-hul-2026-10-17-ful	BUY	No	0.440	$3,832
02:25	epl-ful-hul-2026-10-17-ful	BUY	No	0.440	$3,833
06:04	epl-ful-hul-2026-10-17-ful	BUY	No	0.440	$3,832

今日平仓 (0)

暂无成交 / No fills yet.

四、全部平仓记录

Time	Market	Pick	In	Out	PnL
09:51	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea	No	0.749	0.843	$+1,259
10:47	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White	Cleveland Guardians	0.374	0.571	$+7,585
10:52	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White	Cleveland Guardians	0.374	0.610	$+2,592
13:34	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	0.729	0.500	$-8,210
13:39	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	0.729	0.500	$-2,910
14:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.830	0.342	$-7,141
14:40	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.830	0.515	$-888
15:36	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannari	Adrian Mannarino	0.677	0.846	$+4,582
16:02	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea	No	0.707	0.599	$-2,807
16:42	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrett	Matteo Berrettini	0.354	0.030	$-2,546
21:35	China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiat	Iga Swiatek	0.386	0.324	$-2,840
22:22	Thunder vs. Hawks	Thunder	0.483	0.146	$-6,144
19:48	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO	Team Spirit	0.400	0.153	$-17,230
19:49	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO	Team Spirit	0.400	0.221	$-11,499
04:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade b	No	0.823	0.817	$-453
05:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade b	No	0.823	0.844	$+911
07:29	Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heism	No	0.448	0.413	$-84
07:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.226	0.182	$-10,670
08:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.167	0.157	$-2,228
09:04	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou	No	0.370	0.377	$+1,775
22:01	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.172	0.133	$-13,009
22:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	0.850	0.830	$-470
04:02	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.222	$-1,975
04:03	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.161	$-12,665
04:04	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.238	$-9,522
04:04	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.288	$-5,535
07:39	Will the upper bound of the target fed	No	0.577	0.221	$-2,465
21:12	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.222	0.142	$-7,240
21:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.215	0.119	$-8,952
02:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.237	0.200	$-1,213
03:27	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 20	Yes	0.436	0.368	$-4,971
03:27	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.312	0.287	$-619
04:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.320	0.281	$-1,386
06:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Pr	Yes	0.320	0.154	$-2,208
09:57	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.284	0.244	$-1,637
15:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.239	0.250	$+1,363
17:37	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP (	NIP	0.300	0.226	$-293
20:14	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.260	0.250	$-148
04:00	Mallorca: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebe	Rebeka Masarova	0.474	0.382	$-745
04:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.210	0.192	$-3,600

五、每笔交易复盘 / Per-trade journal (how & why)

本窗口无平仓交易 / no closed trades in window.

六、对抗门统计 / Adversarial gate (24h)

判定 / Verdict	次数	说明
✅ 放行 passed	0	对抗门未能证伪 -> 允许下单
🛑 否决 enforced_veto	2	有据可查的反证 -> 拦截下单
⚠️ 幻觉拦截 unverified_logged	0	反证无法溯源(幻觉) -> 仅记录不拦截
❓ 不可用 unavailable	11	中继故障 -> fail-open 放行
合计 / total	13

拦截率 / veto rate: 15% （2/13）

近 24h 被拦截的拟交易 / recent enforced vetoes

市场	方向	置信	攻击理由
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	BUY_NO	0.80	High liquidity (156848) and 24h volume (198793) mean price is up‑to‑da
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-17?	BUY_NO	0.73	High liquidity and tight spread imply market price is efficient; model

七、moomoo demo 账户 / Demo Account (SIMULATE, 无真金)

moomoo demo 当前不可用 / unavailable: `demo account 1425224 not found (OpenD not logged in?)`

(OpenD 未登录时属正常；demo 环境，无真金。)

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2026-10-17 08:56:59 JST · Polymarket demo — 无真金交易。