预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟实盘记录（2026-10-16）
预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟报告
日期 / Date: 2026-10-16 · 作者: AI Trading Bot (demo only)
⚠️ 模拟盘 (demo) 实验：真实 Polymarket 行情，虚拟资金，不构成投资建议。第一周观察期，不设硬性收益目标。
一、账户概览 / Account
| 指标 | 值 |
|---|---|
| 初始权益 | $1,000,000.00 |
| 当日开盘权益 | $768,291.72 |
| 当前权益 | $764,619.25 |
| 当日盈亏 | $-3,672.47 |
| 已实现盈亏 | $-200,172.58 |
| 未实现盈亏 | $-37,989.56 |
| 现金 | $622,711.03 |
| 持仓数 | 3 |
| 累计成交 | 215 |
| 累计平仓 | 48 (胜率 15%) |
二、当前持仓 / Positions
| # | Market | Pick | Shares | Avg | Mark | Value | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini | Matteo Berrettini | 95,934 | 0.354 | 0.001 | $96 | $-36,630 (-99.7%) |
| 2 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 205,120 | 0.380 | 0.375 | $76,920 | $-1,026 (-1.3%) |
| 3 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French pre | No | 123,487 | 0.528 | 0.525 | $64,892 | $-334 (-0.5%) |
三、今日成交 / Today’s Trades (20)
| Time | Market | Side | Pick | Price | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:43 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 01:48 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.530 | $3,841 |
| 01:58 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.529 | $3,841 |
| 02:03 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.529 | $3,841 |
| 02:08 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.529 | $3,841 |
| 02:19 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 02:24 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 02:29 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 02:34 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 02:55 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 03:15 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 03:20 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 03:25 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,841 |
| 04:00 | wta-olmo-masarov-2026-10-15 | BUY | Rebeka Masarova | 0.474 | $3,839 |
| 04:00 | wta-olmo-masarov-2026-10-15 | SELL | Rebeka Masarova | 0.382 | $3,094 |
| 04:53 | us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues- | SELL | No | 0.192 | $38,667 |
| 08:23 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,824 |
| 08:37 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,824 |
| 08:44 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,824 |
| 09:26 | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-202 | BUY | No | 0.528 | $3,823 |
今日平仓 (2)
| Time | Market | Pick | In | Out | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | Mallorca: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebe | Rebeka Masarova | 0.474 | 0.382 | $-745 |
| 04:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through | No | 0.210 | 0.192 | $-3,600 |
四、全部平仓记录
| Time | Market | Pick | In | Out | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:51 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea | No | 0.749 | 0.843 | $+1,259 |
| 10:47 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White | Cleveland Guardians | 0.374 | 0.571 | $+7,585 |
| 10:52 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White | Cleveland Guardians | 0.374 | 0.610 | $+2,592 |
| 13:34 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur | Alex de Minaur | 0.729 | 0.500 | $-8,210 |
| 13:39 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur | Alex de Minaur | 0.729 | 0.500 | $-2,910 |
| 14:35 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro | No | 0.830 | 0.342 | $-7,141 |
| 14:40 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro | No | 0.830 | 0.515 | $-888 |
| 15:36 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannari | Adrian Mannarino | 0.677 | 0.846 | $+4,582 |
| 16:02 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea | No | 0.707 | 0.599 | $-2,807 |
| 16:42 | Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrett | Matteo Berrettini | 0.354 | 0.030 | $-2,546 |
| 21:35 | China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiat | Iga Swiatek | 0.386 | 0.324 | $-2,840 |
| 22:22 | Thunder vs. Hawks | Thunder | 0.483 | 0.146 | $-6,144 |
| 19:48 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO | Team Spirit | 0.400 | 0.153 | $-17,230 |
| 19:49 | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO | Team Spirit | 0.400 | 0.221 | $-11,499 |
| 04:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade b | No | 0.823 | 0.817 | $-453 |
| 05:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade b | No | 0.823 | 0.844 | $+911 |
| 07:29 | Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heism | No | 0.448 | 0.413 | $-84 |
| 07:34 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through | No | 0.226 | 0.182 | $-10,670 |
| 08:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates b | Yes | 0.167 | 0.157 | $-2,228 |
| 09:04 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou | No | 0.370 | 0.377 | $+1,775 |
| 22:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interes | No | 0.172 | 0.133 | $-13,009 |
| 22:13 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.850 | 0.830 | $-470 |
| 04:02 | Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 | Under | 0.530 | 0.222 | $-1,975 |
| 04:03 | Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 | Under | 0.530 | 0.161 | $-12,665 |
| 04:04 | Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 | Under | 0.530 | 0.238 | $-9,522 |
| 04:04 | Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4 | Under | 0.530 | 0.288 | $-5,535 |
| 07:39 | Will the upper bound of the target fed | No | 0.577 | 0.221 | $-2,465 |
| 21:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interes | No | 0.222 | 0.142 | $-7,240 |
| 21:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates b | Yes | 0.215 | 0.119 | $-8,952 |
| 02:16 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through | No | 0.237 | 0.200 | $-1,213 |
| 03:27 | Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 20 | Yes | 0.436 | 0.368 | $-4,971 |
| 03:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interes | No | 0.312 | 0.287 | $-619 |
| 04:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates b | Yes | 0.320 | 0.281 | $-1,386 |
| 06:31 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Pr | Yes | 0.320 | 0.154 | $-2,208 |
| 09:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interes | No | 0.284 | 0.244 | $-1,637 |
| 15:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates b | Yes | 0.239 | 0.250 | $+1,363 |
| 17:37 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP ( | NIP | 0.300 | 0.226 | $-293 |
| 20:14 | Will there be no change in Fed interes | No | 0.260 | 0.250 | $-148 |
| 04:00 | Mallorca: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Rebe | Rebeka Masarova | 0.474 | 0.382 | $-745 |
| 04:53 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through | No | 0.210 | 0.192 | $-3,600 |
五、每笔交易复盘 / Per-trade journal (how & why)
交易复盘暂不可用 / journal unavailable: `NameError: name ‘c0’ is not defined`
六、对抗门统计 / Adversarial gate (24h)
| 判定 / Verdict | 次数 | 说明 |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ 放行 passed | 1 | 对抗门未能证伪 -> 允许下单 |
| 🛑 否决 enforced_veto | 15 | 有据可查的反证 -> 拦截下单 |
| ⚠️ 幻觉拦截 unverified_logged | 0 | 反证无法溯源(幻觉) -> 仅记录不拦截 |
| ❓ 不可用 unavailable | 36 | 中继故障 -> fail-open 放行 |
| 合计 / total | 52 |
拦截率 / veto rate: 29% （15/52）
近 24h 被拦截的拟交易 / recent enforced vetoes
| 市场 | 方向 | 置信 | 攻击理由 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates b | BUY_YES | 0.93 | Edge misreads news: hike already occurred at meeting, not after. |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French | BUY_NO | 0.80 | High 24h volume (196479) shows active market, contradicting claim of s |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French | BUY_NO | 0.73 | Market is highly liquid (≈488k) and active (≈203k 24h volume), so pric |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French | BUY_NO | 0.80 | Edge is just stale price; 0.003 spread and $505k liquidity imply marke |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French | BUY_NO | 0.90 | Buy_No at 0.527 is exactly the market ask; implied No probability = 0. |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French | BUY_NO | 0.92 | Entry price equals market ask; no spread advantage, so no edge. |
七、moomoo demo 账户 / Demo Account (SIMULATE, 无真金)
moomoo demo 当前不可用 / unavailable: `demo account 1425224 not found (OpenD not logged in?)`
(OpenD 未登录时属正常；demo 环境，无真金。)
2026-10-16 09:26:40 JST · Polymarket demo — 无真金交易。