预测市场 AI 交易机器人 — 每日模拟报告

日期 / Date: 2026-10-15 · 作者: AI Trading Bot (demo only)

⚠️ 模拟盘 (demo) 实验：真实 Polymarket 行情，虚拟资金，不构成投资建议。第一周观察期，不设硬性收益目标。

一、账户概览 / Account

指标	值
初始权益	$1,000,000.00
当日开盘权益	$780,789.52
当前权益	$769,862.37
当日盈亏	$-10,927.15
已实现盈亏	$-195,112.63
未实现盈亏	$-37,806.38
现金	$687,968.91
持仓数	4
累计成交	169
累计平仓	42 (胜率 14%)

二、当前持仓 / Positions

#	Market	Pick	Shares	Avg	Mark	Value	Unrealized
1	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Berrettini	95,934	0.354	0.001	$96	$-36,630 (-99.7%)
2	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	205,120	0.380	0.375	$76,920	$-1,026 (-1.3%)
3	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP (BO3)	NIP	3,928	0.300	0.285	$1,120	$-59 (-5.0%)
4	US x Iran ceasefire continues through Octo	No	18,332	0.210	0.205	$3,758	$-92 (-2.4%)

三、今日成交 / Today’s Trades (27)

Time	Market	Side	Pick	Price	USD
00:04	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,904
00:30	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,904
01:21	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,903
01:26	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,903
01:31	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,903
01:36	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,903
01:51	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,902
01:56	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,902
02:11	us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-	BUY	No	0.243	$3,902
02:16	us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-	BUY	No	0.231	$3,900
02:16	us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-	SELL	No	0.200	$6,588
02:26	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,896
03:11	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,881
03:16	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed	BUY	No	0.325	$3,881
03:17	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,881
03:22	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,879
03:26	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed	BUY	No	0.300	$3,878
03:27	ucl-bog-bvb-2026-10-14-bvb	SELL	Yes	0.368	$26,893
03:27	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed	SELL	No	0.287	$7,140
03:47	will-the-fed-increase-interest	BUY	Yes	0.325	$3,867
03:52	will-the-fed-increase-interest	BUY	Yes	0.325	$3,866
04:07	will-the-fed-increase-interest	BUY	Yes	0.310	$3,865
04:08	will-the-fed-increase-interest	SELL	Yes	0.281	$10,213
06:31	will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the	SELL	Yes	0.154	$2,054
08:25	cs2-aur1-nip-2026-10-15	BUY	NIP	0.300	$1,178
08:30	2026-balance-of-power-d-senate	BUY	No	0.380	$3,850
08:35	us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-	BUY	No	0.210	$3,850

今日平仓 (5)

Time	Market	Pick	In	Out	PnL
02:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.237	0.200	$-1,213
03:27	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 20	Yes	0.436	0.368	$-4,971
03:27	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.312	0.287	$-619
04:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.320	0.281	$-1,386
06:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Pr	Yes	0.320	0.154	$-2,208

四、全部平仓记录

Time	Market	Pick	In	Out	PnL
23:10	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie	Cameron Norrie	0.623	0.148	$-11,360
23:15	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie	Cameron Norrie	0.623	0.160	$-10,239
01:37	Villena: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Petr Nes	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0.630	0.433	$-5,949
08:20	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.916	0.666	$-3,197
08:25	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.916	0.821	$-18
08:25	Thunder vs. Hawks	Thunder	0.503	0.090	$-15,418
09:51	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea	No	0.749	0.843	$+1,259
10:47	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White	Cleveland Guardians	0.374	0.571	$+7,585
10:52	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White	Cleveland Guardians	0.374	0.610	$+2,592
13:34	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	0.729	0.500	$-8,210
13:39	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	0.729	0.500	$-2,910
14:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.830	0.342	$-7,141
14:40	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets fro	No	0.830	0.515	$-888
15:36	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannari	Adrian Mannarino	0.677	0.846	$+4,582
16:02	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Pea	No	0.707	0.599	$-2,807
16:42	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Matteo Berrett	Matteo Berrettini	0.354	0.030	$-2,546
21:35	China Open: Elise Mertens vs Iga Swiat	Iga Swiatek	0.386	0.324	$-2,840
22:22	Thunder vs. Hawks	Thunder	0.483	0.146	$-6,144
19:48	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO	Team Spirit	0.400	0.153	$-17,230
19:49	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO	Team Spirit	0.400	0.221	$-11,499
04:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade b	No	0.823	0.817	$-453
05:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade b	No	0.823	0.844	$+911
07:29	Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heism	No	0.448	0.413	$-84
07:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.226	0.182	$-10,670
08:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.167	0.157	$-2,228
09:04	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Hou	No	0.370	0.377	$+1,775
22:01	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.172	0.133	$-13,009
22:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	0.850	0.830	$-470
04:02	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.222	$-1,975
04:03	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.161	$-12,665
04:04	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.238	$-9,522
04:04	Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4	Under	0.530	0.288	$-5,535
07:39	Will the upper bound of the target fed	No	0.577	0.221	$-2,465
21:12	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.222	0.142	$-7,240
21:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.215	0.119	$-8,952
02:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through	No	0.237	0.200	$-1,213
03:27	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 20	Yes	0.436	0.368	$-4,971
03:27	Will there be no change in Fed interes	No	0.312	0.287	$-619
04:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates b	Yes	0.320	0.281	$-1,386
06:31	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Pr	Yes	0.320	0.154	$-2,208

五、每笔交易复盘 / Per-trade journal (how & why)

交易复盘暂不可用 / journal unavailable: `NameError: name ‘c0’ is not defined`

六、对抗门统计 / Adversarial gate (24h)

判定 / Verdict	次数	说明
✅ 放行 passed	0	对抗门未能证伪 -> 允许下单
🛑 否决 enforced_veto	23	有据可查的反证 -> 拦截下单
⚠️ 幻觉拦截 unverified_logged	0	反证无法溯源(幻觉) -> 仅记录不拦截
❓ 不可用 unavailable	45	中继故障 -> fail-open 放行
合计 / total	68

拦截率 / veto rate: 34% （23/68）

近 24h 被拦截的拟交易 / recent enforced vetoes

市场	方向	置信	攻击理由
Will the Fed increase interest rates b	BUY_YES	0.92	The news confirms the Fed already raised rates 25bps at the Oct meetin
Will the Fed increase interest rates b	BUY_YES	0.80	News says the 25bps hike occurred at the Oct 2026 meeting, not after i
Will the Fed increase interest rates b	BUY_YES	0.85	News says the 25 bps hike occurs *at* the Oct 2026 meeting, but the ma
Will there be no change in Fed interes	BUY_NO	0.92	News points to a likely rate hike, not unchanged, so No is overpriced
Will the Fed increase interest rates b	BUY_YES	0.93	Recent news already reports a 25‑bp hike, making Yes near‑certain; buy
Will there be no change in Fed interes	BUY_NO	0.90	Recent news says investors forecast the Fed will keep rates unchanged

七、moomoo demo 账户 / Demo Account (SIMULATE, 无真金)

指标	值
账户 / Account	1425224 (SIMULATE / demo)
总资产 / Total assets	$999,998.84
现金 / Cash	$999,986.84
持仓市值 / Market value	$12.00
持仓数 / Positions	1

代码	名称	数量	成本	现价	未实现盈亏
US.F	Ford Motor	1	12.174	12.000	$+0.00

---

2026-10-15 08:56:07 JST · Polymarket demo — 无真金交易。